How accurate is the prediction?

The deterministic predictor is a directional tool - it tells you whether your CTA + paragraph is likely to outperform or underperform the niche median, with a CTR range. It is not a substitute for actual A/B testing, but it catches the obvious friction patterns before send.

Across the Newsletrix corpus, the median click-through rate is 2.1% for ecommerce, 2.6% for B2B SaaS, 4.5% for media digests, 5.2% for creator newsletters. These are body-paragraph-anchored CTAs - hero buttons typically run 30-50% above these medians.

What kills click-through?

Hedging words in the build-up (maybe, perhaps, might, hopefully), apologies (sorry, unfortunately), vague CTA copy (Click here, Learn more), and competing CTAs in the same email. The predictor highlights the first three categories in your paragraph.

Yes - deterministic prediction in your browser.

📈 CTR predictor

CTA click predictor

Paste the paragraph that leads up to your CTA, plus the button copy. Get a predicted CTR range, the friction words highlighted, and three sharper CTAs to test.

Niche-anchored Friction map Browser-only

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How accurate?

Directional, not predictive. Tells you whether you'll likely outperform or underperform the niche median.

What kills CTR?

Hedging words, apologies, vague CTA copy, competing CTAs in the same email.

Niche medians?

B2B 2.6%, ecom 2.1%, media 4.5%, creator 5.2%, fintech 1.9%, dev 3.1%. Body-paragraph-anchored CTAs.

Free?

Yes - deterministic, in browser.

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